How Bad Could 2010 Really Get For Democrats?
So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a "V"-shaped recovery and President Obama's job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.
That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.
5 comments:
Bill Bennett was talking about the 100 plus seat pickup the last couple days on his Morning in America.
I don't think that how many seats the Democrats lose, is nearly as important as who it is that fills those seats!
If the Democrats lose 50 seats and those seats end up being filled with Country Club Republicans who believe the era of Reagan is over and Conservatism is a dead ideology, we will be no better off than if the seats were taken by Democrats.
With more power grabs as the money reform bill; the way their spin is worded about those baaddd wall street types, could be a builder of dems seats-- the illiterate public will ooh aaaah at the protection the dems are giving the little poor guys!
The Big Media ain't on our side!
I don't know how many conservatives will take liberal chairs in the House. The question to me is what they will do with the opportunity. George W. Bush (following 911) had a vast national mandate and nearly universal international support. On September 11, 2001, NOBODY would have bet that the next president would be named barack hussein obama, a closet Muslim/Black Liberation Theologist. It was a reaction to Bush (not at all a conservative) not listening to the people.
There is a hubris that comes with office. I would hope that the conservatives would comport themselves better than their liberal (soon-to-be) predecessors.
If the unemployment rate remains high, which it will, the Dems will suffer heavy losses. Let's hope the voters have learned that elections have consequences, and make wise choices in November.
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