December 13, 2011

Model Me This

As the old adage goes, "Figures Don't Lie, But Liars Never Figure ... They Use Models."

Whether it's global warming, public support for the Occupiers or the housing market, people are quick to use flawed models on which to base their recommendations/findings, particularly when it involves your money. This way, instead of being accused of lying, they are merely using the wrong model ... oopsy! ... and then say they will correct the model after screwing around with the lives of millions of people. It's a great way to avoid responsibility and criticism; after all, who ever lost their job because they used the wrong model? Hey, we flunked math!

Data on sales of previously owned U.S. homes from 2007 through October this year will be revised down next week because of double counting, indicating a much weaker housing market than previously thought.

The National Association of Realtors said a benchmarking exercise had revealed that some properties were listed more than once, and in some instances, new home sales were also captured.
That's how you determine the reliability of a model, you benchmark it. But you design the benchmark tests and run them prior to verifying that the data model is accurate and then using it. Not here, they waited ten years (they use census data) to find out that it's crap; now they can blame Bush.

"All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought," NAR spokesman Walter Malony told Reuters.

"We're capturing some new home data that should have been filtered out and we also discovered that some properties were being listed in more than one list."
So how bad was their model? It was off by as much as 20%. That moves the Suck Meter right into the red zone.
Early this year, the Realtors group was accused of over counting existing homes sales, with California-based real estate analysis firm CoreLogic claiming sales could have been overstated by as much as 20 percent.

[...]The depressed housing market is one of the key obstacles to strong economic growth and an oversupply of unsold homes on the market continues to stifle the sector.

Malony said the Realtors group had developed a new model that would allow frequent benchmarking instead of waiting 10 years for the population Census data to revise their figures.
And this model will come online just in time to blame the new screwed up economic projections on the new Republican administration that takes over in 2013...

Life is good when you flunk math.


They Say/We Say said...

You nailed it. Even Bush was blamed for the rescission of 2,000; Bush did not take office until Jan. 2,001.
I've noticed every time the Dems. loose power the trap is set for a come back as soon as the Repubs take office. It's almost as a plan on both party's part--Hey we'll let you guys have it for a while and then let this lead the news and don't defend yourselves, then we will be elected back in power/powersharing. Trent Lot said that sharing the power in the Senate would come back to bit-em...boy did it-again and agin and agin...
I'm convinced this is all orchestrated by the secret good ole boys and girls club.
It's the only explanation for "you have to pass it to see what's in it"; with out any cry's of fowl by the Repubs.
They are all in violation of the 14th amendment, section 3: AND SHALL NOT TAKE ANOTHER OATH! Not even as dog catcher.
But there are no people wanting to say this but ME...
Want to Sleep at night?

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

So you think they forgot the foreclosures in my neighborhood?

Libertarian Advocate said...

Do you mean something like the AGW "scientists" development of the hockey-stick algorithm that generates a hockey stick graph no matter what data is input?

Yeah, the Proggy Left definitely has an ethics and credibility deficit, but the press all the more so for letting the Proglodites get away with their wild-eyed B.S.

Kid said...

How about debbie doucherman-shitzfurbrains stating that "unemployment is down from the point oblabber took office."


sig94 said...

TSWS - that's some heavy reading.

sig94 said...

Odie - foreclosures? What foreclosures? Those are temporary housing adjustments.

sig94 said...

LibAdv - yes, something like that. The math for that "hockey stick" is embedded into the global warming model like "treacherous, traitorous scum" is embedded in Obugger's DNA.

sig94 said...

Kid - Debbie Washerwoman Schultz is the MOADFB, Mother of All Ditz For Brains. If someone ever takes out a patent for stupid she would have to retire from public life. She couldn't afford the royalty payments.

Sugu said...

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