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November 7, 2010

Pay Back


The Washington Post (of all things) produced this apocalyptic opinion piece on the fate of the Democrats.

There's really no gentle way to say this, so I'm just going to be blunt: In some ways, the political situation post-Nov. 2 is even worse for the Democrats than it may appear. And I am not just referring to the colossal losses they experienced in state legislatures -- a 650+ seat swing in favor of the GOP that has left the Dems in control of the fewest state legislatures since 1928. The resulting pro-GOP gerrymandering may lastingly blunt the demographic advantage Democrats could otherwise expect to reap from population trends such as the growth of Hispanic America.

There is a double whammy that Herr Lane is referring to. It is the loss of Democratic electors in the Electoral College.

No, what's really bad for President Obama and his party is the likely impact of the 2010 Census and ensuing House of Representatives reapportionment on the distribution of votes in the 2012 Electoral College. We can talk all day about whether a majority of voters would support Obama for re-election or not, but what really counts in presidential elections is the Electoral College. Each state's electoral vote equals its number of representatives in the House plus two, for its Senate delegation. And since the U.S. population continues to flow South and West, reapportionment will probably add House seats in red states and subtract them in blue states. Thus, the Census looks like a setback for Democratic chances to win the 270 electoral votes necessary to become president.

The Electoral College was established in Article II of the US Constitution and is now comprised of 538 "electors". Let's cut to the chase.

[...] Removing Ohio, Florida and Nevada from the analysis, because they are too unpredictable, it looks like Republicans can pretty much count on an additional 7 electoral votes (Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, 4 in Texas, and Utah, minus the loss of one vote in Louisiana) in 2012, while the Democrats can count on 7 fewer (losses in Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, offset by a gain in Washington).

As of January 2011, there will be seven fewer Blue State electors who will be picked up by Red States. Using the 2008 Presidential campaign where McCain (a weak candidate) grabbed 22 states for a total of 173 electoral votes, the Republican bottom line may be about to grow to 180. The magic number of 271 can be had by just holding on to six states that more often than not have swung Republican: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Virginia and Nevada.

As it happens, all six of these states, except for North Carolina, will have Republican governors next year, and all six, except for Nevada, will have Republican state legislatures.

Get that fork ready. It may be that the Dems are finally done. And we can thank Obama, Reid and Pelosi for marinating their members, preheating the oven and selecting the spices. Even now they just can't figure out how to turn off the gas and cool the rheotric.

27 comments:

nacilbupera said...

Pelosi's quest to become minority leader--if realized--will also be a boon to GOP elections in 2012 as she is so unpopular and polarizing.

They Say/We Say said...

It don't matter what color the states are now or in the next few years-if the sheeple are used like they were in 1992 and 2008. The word on the street during the Clinton run in'92 was we need a change. That's is all I heard every where I went and struck up conversation. I said not this guy. But was met with I don't care, we need something different than Bush/ Republican. Again in 2008 the street was full of hope and change. So, it looks like nothing is a lock, even if the districts are in Republican territory.
We will need to be ever vigilante for awhile/like for the whole next 2yrs. Cause the Repubs will show some burnout after the next year; the Dems will beat them over the head at every chance, with the help of the MSM. That we know for sure.

Christopher - Conservative Perspective said...

Another piece to this redistricting puzzle that many seem to be forgetting is the activist (socialist) judges that are stacked in the federal court system where likely challenges are to be heard.

Yes, maintain vigilance but retain lawyers.

LL said...

There was a Republican majority in Congress and George W. Bush was the president. That was squandered in my opinion. Democrats would say the same of the first two years of the Obama regime.

There is a lesson to be drawn from this.

Woodsterman (Odie) said...

LL, this time they know they're on probation. We are watching very closely.

sig94 said...

nacil -
Thank Heaven
For huge egos.
For huge egos get bigger every day.

Thank Heaven
For huge egos.
They blow up in the most delightful way.

Those Democrats
So fragile and now reeling
With all their cash
They're in the trash
ObamaCare we're repealing.

Thank Heaven
For huge egos.
Thank Heaven for them all
No matter where, no matter who
They pissed off all the voters
Now they're screwed.

sig94 said...

TSWS -
The Tea Party is the wild card. And we have the intertubes to keep us informed. It is a sight different than in '92 and '08.

sig94 said...

Chris- amen to that. Lawyers, guns and money.

sig94 said...

LL - there were too many RINO's and not enough conservatives. That's why it fell apart. We need to keep their feet to the fire. If they fail to comform to our expectations - then out they go.

sig94 said...

Odie - you got it.

sig94 said...

Nickie, thanks for the graphic. It's perfect.

Zio Rico said...

The Republicans have a pathway to success before them. Expect them to tumble into the hedge.

sig94 said...

Zio - that's always in the cards. Republicans are their own worst enemies. May be it is the water in DC that turns ordinary concerned citizens into horses' asses.

Doom said...

I have my doubts, but then again, I am a doubting Thomas. I doubt the delivery of gold until, well, until I have it and then die. Otherwise it might still be stolen. Still, I can smile and poke fun. I don't really like gold anyway, actually. But this... this I like. Deliver it then kill me, would ya? ha...

Starsplash said...

Whoa. I forgot all about the redistricting needed from the 2010 census.... This was so much a bigger win than I was thinking it would be.
In that light I don't think that the democrats considered the fallout much when they decided to pull the collosal brewshans they did.
Year by year because of the birthrate of the libs 1.47 vs The conservatives 2.4 they are getting weaker and weaker. This is great news.Wahaoo!

The_Kid said...

That's all well and good Mr Sig, but we need people who are going to turn back some serious huge mistakes.

DHS, Dept of Energy, Dept of Ed, etc etc. along with the HC bill and probably anything obama has put in place.

And Christopher, Judges for sure. See Opus's latest post.
Got a Long way to go and I'll bet people put little to zero effort into finding out about judge affiliations/records.

We gotta keep the ball in the air.

But, I sure enjoyed reading how the dems are screwed for a while.

sig94 said...

Doom - I, whoa, okay, yessir. On it's way.

sig94 said...

Star - it almost seems like the Dems should be on some kind of suicide watch. You know, the kind of watch where they give you popcorn and comfy seats and footrubs and you watch them cut each others throats.

JmG said...

We all like to think we know what the future holds, but we are mostly making guesses or even wishes. When Obama won in 2008 there were predictions that the GOP was an endangered species, and now it's back with a vengeance. I've been thinking the joy we Republicans are in now will be short lived; two years is a long time in modern American politics. We can applaud as the GOP leadership refuses to cooperate with Obama, but that might make Obama more feisty, it might make people begin to like him more, it might make the GOP look like stubborn children instead of committed to conservative ideals. You never know how these things will play out in public opinion; Boener is no more infallible than Obamessiah.

sig94 said...

Kid - they are going to have to get their act together. It's a little premature right now to say how it is going to pan out, but as so many others are saying - we have to keep on them.

What they really have to do is stop fighting over peanuts. The discretionary funding is nothing compared to the off budget entitlements. These costs have to be reined in and controlled or eliminated completely.

The_Kid said...

Sig, quite true. If you look at the budget the overwhelming majority of [shrinking] dollars goes out to entitlement programs. SS, Medicare, Medicaid, VA, welfare, etc.

WoFat said...

Bing!

Anonymous said...

Excellent post.

Rhod said...

I expect that the old push to elminate the electoral college will crank up.

sig94 said...

Rhod - always the last resort when they can't steal an election. Thank God for the Constitutional amendment process.

Teresa said...

I'll get a shovel and dig a hole for these DemocRATS. They're done!!

I am thinking positively, hoping the GOP doesn't screw up this second chnace the voters gave them.

sig94 said...

Teresa - dig it deep and fill it with gasoline. Kill them with fire. But if the GOP screws it up, the Dems will rise from the ashes like a phoenix.