That I punted Rahm on Monday when he left this awful mess.
I ain't ready to leave the White House but I do agree this time,
That impeachment could be the next stop down the line.
Well, I keep on thinkin' 'bout you, America's Midterm November Surprise.
I no longer fool the public, they can see right through my lies.
I am such a poor performer, my incompetence blows their mind,
You know I only do well when the media keeps them blind.
Will the House split down the middle? Will the House go Republican?
Maintaining a musical metaphor, the blind fold is slip-sliding away. Within the next month we may witness a historic reversal of fortune for the democrats.
Gallup’s astonishing numbers and the Lake Superior congressional districts
Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.
However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.
These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.