Food Inflation

My wife is incensed over the price of food. We eat well, not extravagant but well and we pay for it. Some say that the price of food has outstripped wages. The following analysis posted by Carpe Diem refutes that.

The blue line in the chart shows the 11% increase since June 2009 in the broadest CPI food category “Food and Beverages,” which is one of the eight major CPI groups according to the BLS, and includes (among hundreds of other items that cover all food and beverage groups): breakfast cereal, milk, coffee, chicken, wine, full and limited service meals away from home, and snacks (Note: This is a sample, see the full list of items here). It should be noted in any discussion about food prices that “food away from home” is almost 50% of total food spending for Americans, according to the most recent USDA data (see Table 10). Therefore, I’m using the most comprehensive measure of food and beverage prices, which would most accurately reflect the prices of food for the typical American household. Using different CPI measures doesn’t change the analysis much – the “CPI-Food” has increased 11.3%, “CPI-Food Away from Home” has increased the same 11.3%, and “CPI-Food at Home” increased 11.36%.

Here’s the key point – over the last five years, the BLS wage series “Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees: Total Private” has increased by 10.8% from $18.57 to $20.58 per hour (see red line in chart). Therefore, the broadest measure of food and beverage prices has increased by only slightly more (11%) than the increase in average hourly earnings (10.8%). Food inflation is not “blowing away wage growth” – it’s basically almost exactly matching it! The BLS wage series used here starts in 1964 and is the measure of hourly earnings used most frequently for historical analysis, given its 50-year history. A more recent measure of hourly earnings was introduced by the BLS in 2006 — “Total Private Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private” — and that measure has shown a slightly lower increase in hourly wages since June 2009 of 10.4%, but is still just slightly below the 11% increase in food prices, and provides no statistical support for the claim that “food inflation blows away wage growth.”

It Is, Then It Ain't

A key researcher in the free-gluten movement now admits that it's wrong. Actually it's gluten-free. Free-gluten sounds like a demand for somebody's release from prison. Or this...

What do we want?

Free Gluten!

When do we want it?

Now!!

From the Business Insider:

In one of the best examples of science working, a researcher who provided key evidence of (non-celiac disease) gluten sensitivity recently published follow-up papers that show the opposite. 

The first follow-up paper came out last year in the journal Gastroenterology. Here's the backstory that makes us cheer:

The study was a follow up on a 2011 experiment in the lab of Peter Gibson at Monash University. The scientifically sound — but small — study found that gluten-containing diets can cause gastrointestinal distress in people without celiac disease, a well-known autoimmune disorder triggered by gluten.

They called this non-celiac gluten sensitivity.

Gluten is a protein composite found in wheat, barley, and other grains. It gives bread its chewiness and is often used as a meat substitute. If you've ever had "wheat meat," seitan, or mock duck at a Thai restaurant, that's gluten.

More about the study here.

I just went through a whole series of gastrointestinal work ups (I have GERD and a hiatal hernia) and my internist talked about a new book that is out called "Wheat Belly." He said it rocked it his world and wanted me to read it.

So I looked it up and it was written by a cardiologist, Dr. Davis, who says that man was never meant to eat grass - that's what wheat is, and that the genetically modified grass that we eat today is nothing more than fast growing stalks of sugar. Dwarf wheat, as it is called, was engineered to address world hunger but created a whole series of other health problems instead. That sounds about right.

I ordered the book, should get it mid-week.

How do I love thee? Let me count the ways.

I am far from being sold on this and I plan to explore it carefully (there are criticisms and counter-claims). Plus I love bread, waffles, bagels, muffins, pancakes, pastries, sandwiches - the whole incredible spectrum of yummy wheaty things.

The science that discovered the benefits of a gluten free diet has now been dealt a severe blow; the same could apply to a grain free diet in a few years.

But let's face it, much most of the research today is supported by government grants and if the mega-agribusiness lobby wants to keep growing wheat, what is your guess will happen?

In any event I'll keep you posted.

When You Want To Hurt Yourself For Lunch

This sammich has ham, turkey, cheese, roast beef, capicolla, pastrami, lettuce, tomato on Italian bread and comes with with hand cut fries and cole slaw. Sold here.

H/T Bill.